SADC forces withdrawal and M23 advance heighten DRC crisis-Analyst

Around 1,300 SADC soldiers are set to leave the country as the M23, backed by Rwanda, continues its advance. Despite diplomatic sanctions, Kigali remains steadfast, defending its sovereignty.

Congolese analyst Christian Moleka warns that this situation is creating conditions for instability in the already fragile and mineral-rich eastern DRC.

“The complexity of the Congolese issue lies in the balancing act, where points are given to both Kinshasa and Kigali,” Moleka explains. “This approach, however, is unfavorable to Kinshasa. While pressure and sanctions have been directed at Kinshasa, Rwanda continues to receive small concessions that balance the situation. But this strategy will not fundamentally resolve the issue; it may calm tensions in the short term, but the international community must eventually recognize who the aggressor and the victim are,” said Christian Moleka, a political analyst.

The SADC’s exit from the DRC is seen as a strategic failure, as Kinshasa had hoped to weaken the M23 militarily, as was done in 2013. However, the Congolese military lacks resources, and during their capture of Goma and Bukavu, the M23 managed to recruit dozens of soldiers who had fled the frontlines.

“There are significant reforms needed in the security apparatus,” says Moleka. “Internal cohesion must be restored, and this will depend on the president’s ability to maneuver and use political levers to foster unity, reduce internal conflicts, and implement necessary reforms, particularly in military leadership. While there are still options, much depends on the choices made by key players,” said Christian Moleka, a political analyst.

Kinshasa is also hesitant to engage in direct negotiations with the M23 under Luanda’s mediation. According to Moleka, the DRC has little choice but to enter into dialogue; at worst, the government may attempt to delay the talks by claiming the M23 is raising its demands.

“Kinshasa has little room to avoid going to Luanda,” Moleka says. “International pressure is mounting for direct negotiations. We’ve seen this in Resolution 2773, at the African Union, and during the EAC-SADC summit, which calls for indirect talks. The M23 continues to advance in South Kivu, and there are concerns about the spread of fighting into regions like Kindu, Maniema, Tshopo Kisangani, and Katanga. This risk is also weighing heavily on Kinshasa,” said Christian Moleka, a political analyst.

Meanwhile, the security and humanitarian situation remains critical in several North Kivu cities.

In response to the escalating crisis, UNHCR is urgently calling for international mobilization to prevent a full-blown humanitarian disaster. Without immediate assistance, thousands of lives are at risk.